The Climate Prediction Center recently issued its 90-day outlook for temperature and precipitation for the U.S. It also updated the drought monitor tool.
In general the outlook calls for the next three months to feature above normal temperatures in the western third of the country and in the far southeastern states. Alaska and the Pacific Northwest will also be warmer than usual. Below normal temperatures are confined to much of Texas and areas of adjoining states. Most of the country will see an equal chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Much of the nation may experience above normal precipitation from the southeast through the gulf states to the western plains and Rockies along with a good portion of Alaska. The above normal rainfall may bring drought relief to Texas and the four corners area. The Great Lakes states will see below normal precipitation and the potential of a developing drought. Lake levels and fire danger may be impacted.
The drought monitor shows little change in the near term for the hardest hit areas of the west, parts of Texas, and parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Over the 90 day period of the outlook, the drought may ease in Texas and areas northwest of there. However, drought conditions may expand in the Great Lakes. Unfortunately, little or no relief is seen for California. Just this week water use restrictions of from 8% to 36% were enacted for some municipalities.
Late breaking news. Tornadoes in Germany!
There was a fairly broad outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes in Germany on Tuesday, May 5. Here’s coverage from the British newspaper, The Guardian.
There’s been much talk in recent weeks of a more detailed method of describing the potential for severe weather now being employed by the Storm Prediction Center in its Convective Outlooks. The SPC worked with National Weather Service offices, communications experts and consumers of its products to expand its long time use of the “Slight, Moderate and High” risk categories to “Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate and High.”
In addition, the chart below describes what the storms might look like under each newly-defined category and what the main threats would be.
The Storm Prediction Center has many products that can be used by broadcast meteorologists, emergency managers and the general public to look as far as 8 days ahead. These tools are especially valuable for planning purposes and should never supplant your detailed local forecast.
The Mesoscale Discussions are particularly helpful on days when severe weather is expected. The discussions are issued on an “as needed” basis as storm threats develop. Other tools are updated as often as four times a day. If you’ve never visited the site at spc.noaa.gov, now would be a good time to familiarize yourself with the offerings.
The National Disaster Recovery Framework (NDRF) and Drought Response Across Agencies and Organizations Webinar
Friday, February 1, 2013 at 1 PM Eastern
The National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD) and the Extension Disaster Education Network (EDEN) offer a chance to take a closer look at how the National Disaster Recovery Framework was used to respond to the drought of 2012 and how it continues to be applied in 2013. This Webinar was requested by members of the National VOAD Drought Task Force and the EDEN Drought National Extension Issues Leadership Team. The Webinar is open to anyone, but may be of special interest to VOAD and EDEN members, and federal, state and local agencies involved in drought response.
- Introductions: Steve Cain
- Colleen Callahan: USDA’s perspective on NDRF and drought
- Ryan Velasco, FEMA’s perspective on NDRF and drought **
- Arlan Juhl, State of Illinois’s Drought Task Force and cross agency cooperation,
About the speakers:
- Colleen Callahan is the Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator at USDA
- Ryan Velasco is Emergency Management Specialist, FEMA
- Arlan Juhl is Director of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources
- Steve Cain is the EDEN Homeland Security Project Director and National VOAD drought Task Force Chair.
** Because Ryan is subject to Hurricane Sandy deployment, there may be a substitution.
The link for the webinar is — https://gomeet.itap.purdue.edu/EDENDrought
Kim, Chair Drought NEIL