Weather Wednesday – Tropical Depression Bill and Flooding

It’s often said in areas of drought in the southern U.S. that it takes a tropical storm to reverse the situation. This year, as we know, the Texas-Oklahoma drought was fairly well broken by a lingering storm system over Memorial Day weekend which resulted in more than 30 deaths.

BILL_qpfNow comes what is left of Tropical Storm Bill, already as of this morning, reduced to a tropical depression. Some parts of Texas into Arkansas may see 2 to 5-inches of rain in the next day. While these rain totals don’t match some from the Memorial Day storms, they are excessive and flash flooding is a possibility.

As the remnants of Bill move slowly to the northeast across the next several days the heaviest rain will eventually spread into southern Illinois and on to Indiana by late Friday night into Saturday. Here’s the latest hydrological forecast discussion.

In fact, the remnants of Bill will interact with a stalled frontal system which has caused periodic heavy rain for more than a week as it waffled up and down across Illinois and nearby states.flood map Flood warnings have been issued for several rivers in Illinois and extend into portions of the Mississippi River bordering the state. Flooding in Illinois ranges from major to minor and areas of heaviest precipitation have varied daily.

On Monday, tornado warning sirens sounded in downtown Chicago, a relatively rare occurrence. A funnel cloud was observed east of Midway Airport and another near Millenium Park which is just east of Michigan Avenue in the heart of the city. No touchdowns were reported, but some photos taken at the time show an unmistakable wall cloud.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4299689121001/watch:-huge-wall-cloud-moves-over-chicago?autoStart=true

Weather Wednesday – The Family Go Kit

From time to time on Weather Wednesday we will step away from purely meteorological topics to address preparedness. This week we’ll discuss one of the most basic preparedness items, a personal or family Go Kit.

A Go Kit should be assembled and customized according to individual needs following some general guidelines from FEMA. Be sure to look under the tabs for additional suggested items.

AP_fairdale_tornado_14_sk_150410_16x9_1600Let’s look at some of the items which should be included:

Water, one gallon per person per day for three days for drinking and sanitation. For long term storage the crystal clear containers hold up better, but water and food stocks should be rotated out regularly.

Food, a three day supply of non-perishable food. If using canned food, be sure to include a can opener. Specialty meals designed for use by campers are also a good option. Check preparation instructions to be sure you have all of the necessary equipment.

Battery powered, hand cranked and/or solar powered radio capable of receiving NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and standard broadcast. Carry extra batteries.

Flashlight and extra batteries. Batteries will generally last considerably longer in LED flashlights.

Washington, DC, July 22, 2008 -- A Red Cross "ready to go" preparedness kit showing the bag and it's contents. Red Cross photograph
Red Cross via FEMA

First aid kit. A good basic kit will suffice unless special needs are involved.

Whistle to signal for help. A small air horn is also a good addition, but you can’t beat a whistle for convenience. It takes less volume of air to blow a whistle than to yell which can be important if one is trapped by debris. A whistle or horn also has a better chance of being heard over heavy equipment.

Dust mask.

Plastic sheet and tape if asked to shelter in place.

Local maps. Remember, familiar landmarks may be destroyed in some disasters.

Cell phone with chargers, inverters, solar power, charging packs, etc. Note, avoid using accessories such as the built in flashlight which tend to run down the battery rapidly.

Prescription medications and glasses. Setting aside medication can be problematic so work with your physician and pharmacist to see what can be done.

Cash and change. If the power is out or communications lines down, ATMs will be out of service.

Copies of insurance papers, account numbers, etc. Do keep these in a special place in the kit so you can keep track of them.

Infant formula, diapers, pet food, etc if applicable. Include a leash for your pet and count their water needs as well.

Change of clothes. Err on the side of warmth and waterproof items.

A couple of items recent experience has shown to be very valuable. Sturdy shoes or boots. Sandals and flip flops are not at all useful when walking through debris. If you have identified a shelter area in your home, you might want to keep the spare shoes/boots there.

Bicycle helmets or hard hats may also be useful if easily accessible to your shelter area.

Remember a Go kit should be able to do just that, pick up and go, should the need arise. It is important to temperate the desire to plan for all contingencies with the practical need to perhaps carry the kit for some distance. Kits are also available from retailers, but make sure to customize to your needs.

Weather Wednesday — Hurricane Season Outlook

Tropical Storm Ana earlier this month aside, June 1st marks the beginning of the “official” Atlantic Hurricane season. So what can we expect this year? Exact predictions are always iffy, but noted expert Dr. William Gray and his colleague Philip Klotzbach, both of Colorado State University, predict 7 named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. If true, this would be one of the quietest hurricane seasons in the last 60-years. The long term average is for 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Some recent years have seen in excess of 20 named storms.

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NOAA

Why the smaller numbers? One factor is the development of a strong El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, El Nino years have fewer hurricanes along with other effects. The Weather Channel has created a nice page and video explaining this.

It is extremely important to note, however, that it only takes one major landfalling hurricane to cause vast damage and many casualties. Just because the long range hurricane forecast seems to be encouraging, we’re not out of the woods.

Hurricane-Sandy-stormsurgediagramIn preparation for the 2015 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is unveiling a new system of communicating storm surge threats and vulnerabilities. As has been seen over and over, some of the most devastating damage from hurricanes is not always from strong winds but from storm surge, the wall of water that is pushed out in advance of the center of the hurricane.

20121106-hurricane-sandy-new-jersey-shore.jpg.662x0_q100_crop-scale Hurricane Sandy is one of the more recent demonstrations of this mighty force.

This week, May 24-30, is national Hurricane Preparedness Week.  For those of you who have a role educating others about hurricanes here’s a link to FEMA’s toolkit.   And here is material from the National Hurricane Center/NOAA.

 

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National Dam Safety Awareness Day is May 31st. That date is the anniversary of the failure of the South Fork Dam which resulted in the infamous Johnstown (PA) flood. More than 2,200 lives were lost in what is considered the worst dam failure in the history of the United States according to FEMA.

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Missouri Institute of Science and Technology

The National Dam Safety Program is led by FEMA and a partnership of states, federal agencies and other stakeholders. Dams are part of an aging infrastructure and continued attention is vital in averting future catastrophic failures.